TY - JOUR
T1 - Getting a Grip on Secular Changes
T2 - Age-Period-Cohort Modeling of Grip Strength in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
AU - O'Keefe, Patrick
AU - Mann, Frank D.
AU - Clouston, Sean
AU - Voll, Stacey
AU - Muniz-Terrera, Graciela
AU - Lewis, Nathan
AU - Wanström, Linda
AU - Hofer, Scott M.
AU - Rodgers, Joseph L.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved.
PY - 2022/7/1
Y1 - 2022/7/1
N2 - Background: Grip strength is a popular and valuable measure in studies of physical functional capabilities in old age. The influence of historical trends and differential period-specific exposures can complicate the interpretation of biomarkers of aging and health and requires careful analysis and interpretation of aging, birth cohort, and period effects. This study evaluates the effects of aging, period, and cohort on grip strength in a population of adults and older adults. Methods: We use more than 27 000 observations for individuals at least 50 years of age, born in approximately 1910-1960, from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to examine a variety of multilevel and cross-classified modeling approaches to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects. Our results extended Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort modeling and compared our results with a set of 9 submodels with explicit assumptions to determine the most reliable modeling approach. Results: Findings suggest grip strength is primarily related to age, with minimal evidence of either period and/or cohort effects. Each year's increase in a person's age was associated with a 0.40-kg decrease in grip strength, though this decline differs by gender. Conclusions: We conclude that as the population ages, grip strength declines at a systematic and predictable rate equal to -0.40 kg per year (approximately -0.50 kg for men and -0.30 kg for women) in residents of England aged 50 and older. Age effects were predominant and most consistent across methodologies. While there was some evidence for cohort effects, such effects were minimal and therefore indicative that grip strength is a consistent physiological biomarker of aging.
AB - Background: Grip strength is a popular and valuable measure in studies of physical functional capabilities in old age. The influence of historical trends and differential period-specific exposures can complicate the interpretation of biomarkers of aging and health and requires careful analysis and interpretation of aging, birth cohort, and period effects. This study evaluates the effects of aging, period, and cohort on grip strength in a population of adults and older adults. Methods: We use more than 27 000 observations for individuals at least 50 years of age, born in approximately 1910-1960, from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to examine a variety of multilevel and cross-classified modeling approaches to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects. Our results extended Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort modeling and compared our results with a set of 9 submodels with explicit assumptions to determine the most reliable modeling approach. Results: Findings suggest grip strength is primarily related to age, with minimal evidence of either period and/or cohort effects. Each year's increase in a person's age was associated with a 0.40-kg decrease in grip strength, though this decline differs by gender. Conclusions: We conclude that as the population ages, grip strength declines at a systematic and predictable rate equal to -0.40 kg per year (approximately -0.50 kg for men and -0.30 kg for women) in residents of England aged 50 and older. Age effects were predominant and most consistent across methodologies. While there was some evidence for cohort effects, such effects were minimal and therefore indicative that grip strength is a consistent physiological biomarker of aging.
KW - Age-period-cohort modeling
KW - Grip strength
KW - Secular change
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U2 - 10.1093/gerona/glab192
DO - 10.1093/gerona/glab192
M3 - Article
C2 - 34244743
AN - SCOPUS:85134084126
SN - 1079-5006
VL - 77
SP - 1413
EP - 1420
JO - Journals of Gerontology - Series A Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences
JF - Journals of Gerontology - Series A Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences
IS - 7
ER -