Preoperative computed tomography scan to predict pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy using gland and tumor characteristics This article will be presented at the North Pacific Surgical Association.

Background Preoperative risk stratification for postoperative pancreatic fistula in patients undergoing distal pancreatectomy is needed. Methods Risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula in 220 consecutive patients undergoing distal pancreatectomy at 2 major institutions were recorded retrospectively. Gland density was measured on noncontrast computed tomography scans (n = 101), and histologic scoring of fat infiltration and fibrosis was performed by a pathologist (n = 120). Results Forty-two patients (21%) developed a clinically significant pancreatic fistula within 90 days of surgery. Fat infiltration was significantly associated with gland density (P =.0013), but density did not predict pancreatic fistula (P =.5). Recursive partitioning resulted in a decision tree that predicted fistula in this cohort with a misclassification rate less than 15% using gland fibrosis (histology), density (HU), margin thickness (cm), and pathologic diagnosis. Conclusions This multicenter study shows that no single perioperative factor reliably predicts postoperative pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy. A decision tree was constructed for risk stratification.