Estimating the Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction of a Quality Improvement Initiative in Primary Care: Findings from EvidenceNOW

Background: This study estimates reductions in 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk associated with EvidenceNOW, a multi-state initiative that sought to improve cardiovascular preventive care in the form of (A)spirin prescribing for high-risk patients, (B)lood pressure control for people with hypertension, (C)holesterol management, and (S)moking screening and cessation counseling (ABCS) among small primary care practices by providing supportive interventions such as practice facilitation. Design: We conducted an analytic modeling study that combined (1) data from 1, 278 EvidenceNOW practices collected 2015 to 2017; (2) patient-level information of individuals ages 40 to 79 years who participated in the 2015 to 2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 1, 295); and (3) 10-year ASCVD risk prediction equations. Measures: The primary outcome measure was 10-year ASCVD risk. Results: EvidenceNOW practices cared for an estimated 4 million patients ages 40 to 79 who might benefit from ABCS interventions. The average 10-year ASCVD risk of these patients before intervention was 10.11%. Improvements in ABCS due to EvidenceNOW reduced their 10-year ASCVD risk to 10.03% (absolute risk reduction: -0.08, P ≤.001). This risk reduction would prevent 3, 169 ASCVD events over 10 years and avoid $150 million in 90-day direct medical costs. Conclusion: Small preventive care improvements and associated reductions in absolute ASCVD risk levels can lead to meaningful life-saving benefits at the population level.