Observed best prediction for small area counts

Senke Chen; Jiming Jiang; Thuan Nguyen

doi:10.1093/jssam/smv001

Observed best prediction for small area counts

Senke Chen, Jiming Jiang, Thuan Nguyen

School Of Public Health

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

We extend the observed best prediction (OBP; Jiang, Nguyen, and Rao 2011) method to small area estimation when the responses are counts at the area level. We show via a simulation study that the OBP outperforms the empirical best prediction method when the underlying model is mis-specified. A bootstrap method is proposed for estimating the area-specific mean squared prediction error of the OBP conditioning on the small area mean counts. Two real data examples are considered.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	136-161
Number of pages	26
Journal	Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology
Volume	3
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smv001
State	Published - Jun 1 2015

Keywords

Area-specific MSPE
Bootstrap
OBP
Poisson mixed model
Small area estimation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Applied Mathematics

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10.1093/jssam/smv001

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title = "Observed best prediction for small area counts",

abstract = "We extend the observed best prediction (OBP; Jiang, Nguyen, and Rao 2011) method to small area estimation when the responses are counts at the area level. We show via a simulation study that the OBP outperforms the empirical best prediction method when the underlying model is mis-specified. A bootstrap method is proposed for estimating the area-specific mean squared prediction error of the OBP conditioning on the small area mean counts. Two real data examples are considered.",

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AU - Jiang, Jiming

AU - Nguyen, Thuan

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AB - We extend the observed best prediction (OBP; Jiang, Nguyen, and Rao 2011) method to small area estimation when the responses are counts at the area level. We show via a simulation study that the OBP outperforms the empirical best prediction method when the underlying model is mis-specified. A bootstrap method is proposed for estimating the area-specific mean squared prediction error of the OBP conditioning on the small area mean counts. Two real data examples are considered.

KW - Area-specific MSPE

KW - Bootstrap

KW - OBP

KW - Poisson mixed model

KW - Small area estimation

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EP - 161

JO - Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology

JF - Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology

IS - 2

ER -

Observed best prediction for small area counts

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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