Observed best prediction for small area counts

Senke Chen, Jiming Jiang, Thuan Nguyen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Scopus citations


We extend the observed best prediction (OBP; Jiang, Nguyen, and Rao 2011) method to small area estimation when the responses are counts at the area level. We show via a simulation study that the OBP outperforms the empirical best prediction method when the underlying model is mis-specified. A bootstrap method is proposed for estimating the area-specific mean squared prediction error of the OBP conditioning on the small area mean counts. Two real data examples are considered.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)136-161
Number of pages26
JournalJournal of Survey Statistics and Methodology
Issue number2
StatePublished - Jun 1 2015


  • Area-specific MSPE
  • Bootstrap
  • OBP
  • Poisson mixed model
  • Small area estimation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Applied Mathematics


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